Late-Mantua
0x7dff73963ab261ee6b673b1af34cef0a09fc1f35
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$15.5K
Total PnL
$1.4K
Realised
$95.87
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
3000 shares @ 74.8¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.5K
$290.01
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
2500 shares @ 84.4¢·now 86.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.2K
$52.50
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
1500 shares @ 93.2¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.5K
$65.75
- NO
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
1500 shares @ 83.3¢·now 86.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.3K
$48.50
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
1000 shares @ 83.5¢·now 97.7¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$976.50
$141.10
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
1000 shares @ 91.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$935.00
$25.00
- YES
Will Steph Curry's next team be Golden State Warriors?
750 shares @ 82.6¢·now 92.3¢·exp Feb 11, 2027$692.01
$72.65
- NO
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
800 shares @ 65.3¢·now 69.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$555.92
$33.79
- NO
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
600 shares @ 69.5¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$531.00
$114.00
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
500 shares @ 75.0¢·now 96.8¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$484.00
$109.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$126.00Aug 6, 03:43 UTC
- YIELD$0.36Aug 6, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.00Aug 5, 23:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?$500.00Aug 5, 17:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate hike in 2026?$37.00Aug 5, 15:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Steph Curry's next team be Golden State Warriors?$217.80Aug 5, 09:28 UTC
- YIELD$0.36Aug 5, 02:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$6.56Aug 4, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$7.52Aug 4, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$40.30Aug 4, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$7.23Aug 4, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$4.58Aug 4, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$33.45Aug 4, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$24.34Aug 4, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026?$3.49Aug 4, 13:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026?$4.83Aug 4, 06:38 UTC
- TRADESELLBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?$198.35Aug 4, 06:26 UTC
- TRADESELLBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?$264.46Aug 4, 06:25 UTC
- YIELD$0.36Aug 4, 00:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?$0.00Aug 3, 02:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $111.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 05:06 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 6, 03:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.