Livid-Loft
0x7ed3aed17a79c2a3375da27a9470b310585027aa
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
77
Open notional
$349.21
Total PnL
$-79.73
Realised
$-7.70
Win rate
22%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 77- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
57 shares @ 72.7¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$57.13
$15.47
- YES
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
40 shares @ 57.9¢·now 58.7¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$23.46
$0.32
- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
22 shares @ 57.1¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.28
$4.72
- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
17 shares @ 94.4¢·now 98.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$16.85
$0.72
- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?
15 shares @ 93.3¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$15.13
$0.74
- YES
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
19 shares @ 7.6¢·now 73.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$14.37
$12.88
- NO
Will Jared Goff attend Taylor Swift's wedding?
12 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.96
$-0.02
- NO
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 92.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$9.77
$0.26
- NO
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?
12 shares @ 78.0¢·now 77.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.60
$-0.12
- YES
Will Texas have the closest Senate race in 2026?
54 shares @ 47.4¢·now 17.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$9.14
$-16.36
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$3.90Jul 13, 17:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lana Del Rey attend Taylor Swift's wedding?$15.51Jul 13, 17:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$4.75Jul 13, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$4.75Jul 13, 15:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$1.95Jul 13, 14:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jack Antonoff attend Taylor Swift's wedding?$2.06Jul 13, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$2.54Jul 13, 04:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$1.71Jul 13, 01:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$1.71Jul 13, 00:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$1.40Jul 13, 00:57 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMIran successfully targets shipping on July 9?$8.00Jul 12, 22:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$1.71Jul 12, 21:38 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$0.06Jul 12, 21:36 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$0.01Jul 12, 21:23 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$0.01Jul 12, 21:23 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$0.01Jul 12, 21:23 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$0.01Jul 12, 21:23 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$0.01Jul 12, 21:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
40/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
22% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $1.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 11, 13:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.