Gleaming-Volcano
0x7f5fe18cc397367c1e962daa07e35dcd1c885985
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
192
Open notional
$2.7K
Total PnL
$-812.69
Realised
$22.34
Win rate
89%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 192- YES
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2622 shares @ 15.1¢·now 16.8¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$439.14
$44.14
- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
4091 shares @ 11.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$429.55
$-20.45
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
1500 shares @ 17.0¢·now 27.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$412.50
$157.50
- YES
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
3333 shares @ 12.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$383.33
$-16.66
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
480 shares @ 62.5¢·now 64.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$309.34
$9.34
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?
388 shares @ 51.5¢·now 52.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$203.82
$3.82
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
751 shares @ 26.6¢·now 23.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$172.79
$-27.21
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
204 shares @ 49.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$172.45
$72.45
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 June 29-July 5?
652 shares @ 23.0¢·now 12.1¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$78.91
$-71.09
- NO
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
120 shares @ 16.7¢·now 17.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$20.65
$0.65
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.08Jul 5, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?$10.26Jul 4, 19:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paraguay win on 2026-07-04?$10.29Jul 4, 19:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Canada win on 2026-07-04?$10.22Jul 4, 17:31 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$0.00Jul 4, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$21.30Jul 4, 17:27 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$0.00Jul 4, 17:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$10.98Jul 4, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$20.97Jul 4, 17:24 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$20.84Jul 4, 17:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$20.94Jul 4, 17:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?$203.88Jul 4, 17:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$300.00Jul 4, 15:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$26.38Jul 4, 06:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$100.00Jul 4, 06:24 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$0.00Jul 4, 06:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET$25.95Jul 4, 06:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$26.34Jul 4, 06:18 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET$91.34Jul 4, 06:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET$25.66Jul 4, 06:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
89% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $36.68
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 4, 04:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.