Weary-Airship
0x7f8f626a618f485972b6a54a875f84c9e4cee42d
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
49
Open notional
$26.08
Total PnL
$-43.98
Realised
$-1.83
Win rate
22%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 49- NO
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?
11 shares @ 16.0¢·now 77.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.58
$6.80
- YES
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?
46 shares @ 2.2¢·now 14.4¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$6.62
$5.61
- NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
16 shares @ 12.0¢·now 11.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.82
$-0.10
- NO
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?
38 shares @ 10.5¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.69
$-2.29
- NO
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
12 shares @ 16.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.50
$-0.42
- YES
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
91 shares @ 1.1¢·now 1.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.05
$0.05
- YES
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
46 shares @ 2.2¢·now 2.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.03
$0.02
- YES
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
91 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.86
$-0.14
- NO
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
19 shares @ 10.0¢·now 3.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.69
$-1.21
- YES
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
77 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.65
$-0.35
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00May 5, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 29, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLBank of England rate hike in 2026?$6.30Apr 17, 14:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google (GOOGL) close above $280 end of March?$2.00Mar 31, 17:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March?$7.00Mar 31, 04:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?$2.00Mar 30, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Putin not meet?$0.35Mar 27, 10:28 UTC
- REDEEMTrump cabinet member out by December 31, 2026?$0.00Mar 27, 01:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Backpack launch a token by March 31?$0.00Mar 27, 01:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Detroit Pistons make the NBA Playoffs?$0.00Mar 27, 01:12 UTC
- REDEEMTrump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026?$0.00Mar 27, 01:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast hit 115 billion views by March 31?$0.00Mar 27, 01:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 21, 2026?$0.00Mar 27, 01:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 24, 2026?$0.00Mar 27, 01:11 UTC
- REDEEMOver $2M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?$0.00Mar 27, 01:11 UTC
- REDEEMOver $1M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?$0.00Mar 27, 01:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?$0.00Mar 27, 01:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 1450 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?$0.00Mar 27, 01:11 UTC
- REDEEMTrump cabinet member out by June 30, 2026?$0.00Mar 27, 01:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?$0.00Mar 27, 01:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
22% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $1.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 23, 17:21 UTC
- Last active
- May 5, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.