Wallet digest

active

Activity score

35/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$2.27

Total PnL

$-12.57

Realised

$-0.57

Win rate

10 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 13

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET
1 shares @ 86.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$1.20
$0.17
NO
Will XRP dip to $1.00 June 22-28?
1 shares @ 95.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$1.07
$0.04
YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23?
2970 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026
$0.00
$-2.97
NO
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?
129 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-1.03
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET
15 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026
$0.00
$-1.48
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET
15 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026
$0.00
$-1.49
UP
Solana Up or Down - July 5, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET
5 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-0.05
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - July 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET
5 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-0.05
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET
2 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-1.03
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6PM ET
2 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-1.03

Recent activity

TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 5, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$0.05Jul 5, 12:03 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET$0.05Jul 5, 11:59 UTC
TRADESELLWill XRP reach $1.20 June 29-July 5?$1.00Jun 30, 05:08 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET$1.05Jun 30, 05:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9PM ET$1.07Jun 30, 01:04 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6PM ET$1.07Jun 29, 22:22 UTC
TRADEBUYWill XRP reach $1.20 June 29-July 5?$1.04Jun 29, 19:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET$1.08Jun 29, 18:03 UTC
TRADEBUYAleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?$1.08Jun 29, 18:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7AM ET$1.06Jun 29, 11:31 UTC
TRADESELLWill XRP dip to $1.00 in June?$0.92Jun 29, 05:03 UTC
TRADESELLWill Sweden win on 2026-06-30?$0.77Jun 29, 04:52 UTC
TRADEBUYWill XRP dip to $1.00 in June?$1.08Jun 29, 02:37 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET$1.06Jun 29, 00:20 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5PM ET$0.87Jun 28, 18:59 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5PM ET$1.07Jun 28, 18:59 UTC
TRADESELLNew Rihanna Album before GTA VI?$0.98Jun 28, 17:29 UTC
TRADEBUYNew Rihanna Album before GTA VI?$1.06Jun 28, 17:29 UTC
TRADEBUYWill XRP dip to $1.00 June 22-28?$1.04Jun 28, 17:22 UTC
TRADESELLWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.98Jun 27, 19:31 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

31/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 10 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity43 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence33 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry38 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk46 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 50
Avg trade size: $1.52
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 24, 19:50 UTC
Last active: Jul 5, 12:03 UTC
Win rate sample: 10 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 12:18:37 UTC·src:Polymarket Data