Stimulating-Mailing
0x80cf0749b26556cb2ce5bad513388309865d614d
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$15.8K
Total PnL
$-3.0K
Realised
$-325.78
Win rate
44%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- NO
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
14360 shares @ 50.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$12.4K
$5.2K
- YES
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
14935 shares @ 48.8¢·now 13.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.0K
$-5.3K
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
2416 shares @ 43.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.1K
$12.08
- YES
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
600 shares @ 36.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$201.00
$-15.00
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
100 shares @ 69.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$78.50
$9.50
- YES
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 39.0¢·now 45.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$22.75
$3.25
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
100 shares @ 18.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.50
$3.50
- NO
WHOOP IPO before 2027?
20 shares @ 85.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.50
$-0.50
- YES
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?
891 shares @ 22.4¢·now 1.1¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$10.24
$-189.58
- YES
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
8914 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-713.16
Recent activity
- YIELD$1.38Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$1.38Jul 27, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$1.38Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$1.38Jul 25, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$1.38Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$1.38Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$1.38Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$1.38Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?$10.00Jul 20, 14:48 UTC
- YIELD$1.38Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$1.38Jul 19, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$1.38Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$1.38Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$1.38Jul 16, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$1.38Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$1.38Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$1.38Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$1.38Jul 12, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$1.38Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$1.38Jul 10, 00:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
44% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 7
- Avg trade size
- $162.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 13:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.