Grizzled-Pony
0x827fad2ae16520cc81004f85fc298de1876c577c
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
30
Open notional
$121.12
Total PnL
$-149.93
Realised
$-3.58
Win rate
0%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- NO
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?
121 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$121.12
$0.12
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 2?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on February 25?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 4?
957 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 4?
800 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.60
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 February 16-22?
650 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-2.60
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 23?
600 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on February 24?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on January 14?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?$121.01Aug 11, 06:55 UTC
- REDEEMFrance vs. England: O/U 3.5$10.87Aug 11, 06:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 Week of July 13 2026?$110.22Aug 11, 06:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 Week of July 13 2026?$110.01Jul 17, 07:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. England: O/U 3.5$5.13Jul 17, 07:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5$5.14Jul 17, 07:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $152 in June?$120.12Jul 17, 06:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $152 in June?$120.00Jun 30, 10:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$120.12Jun 30, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$120.01Jun 19, 12:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Meta (META) finish week of June 1 above $670?$120.12Jun 19, 12:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta (META) finish week of June 1 above $670?$120.00Jun 5, 12:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Yang Seung-jo win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?$11.21Jun 5, 12:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on May 31?$11.22Jun 5, 12:33 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$97.19Jun 5, 12:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$97.00May 31, 06:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYValorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Pacific Qualifier Stage 2$3.26May 31, 06:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on May 31?$11.21May 31, 06:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 30?$111.11May 31, 06:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 30?$111.01May 30, 08:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
26/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $78.76
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 21, 07:32 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 06:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.