Drafty-Freelance
0x8328d63bb34102c9f159703132893d238312935f
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
20
Open notional
$11.88
Total PnL
$-148.37
Realised
$-5.13
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- NO
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
6 shares @ 83.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$5.21
$0.21
- NO
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
6 shares @ 84.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$5.15
$0.15
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?
7 shares @ 14.0¢·now 14.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.95
$0.00
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?
5 shares @ 14.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.57
$-0.13
- YES
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-17?
265 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will Target (TGT) beat quarterly earnings?
98 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-20.56
- YES
Will Leavitt say "Inflation" during the next White House Press Briefing?
88 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 26, 2026$0.00
$-22.00
- NO
Will Iran strike Israel on March 8?
52 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-16.00
- NO
Will Trump post "Never let you down" on Truth Social this week? (March 8)
35 shares @ 72.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- NO
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17?
30 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-4.50
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?$5.00May 13, 19:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 2-8?$11.25May 13, 19:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?$19.11May 13, 19:46 UTC
- REDEEMUkraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026?$30.02May 13, 19:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?$19.40Mar 7, 22:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?$20.26Mar 7, 22:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 5?$0.37Mar 5, 21:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 5?$1.45Mar 5, 21:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 5?$5.18Mar 5, 21:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran strike a Gulf State on March 6?$6.11Mar 5, 20:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?$1.84Mar 5, 20:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?$3.15Mar 5, 20:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?$0.75Mar 5, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran strike a Gulf State on March 6?$8.00Mar 5, 20:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?$1.90Mar 5, 19:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran strike Dimona by March 31?$7.35Mar 5, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?$7.32Mar 5, 19:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran strike Dimona by March 31?$9.00Mar 5, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?$0.70Mar 5, 19:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?$1.68Mar 5, 19:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $6.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 4, 11:12 UTC
- Last active
- May 13, 19:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.