Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+3.4pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$0.00
Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream marked the market closed/settled with YES price dominant.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Mar 3, 2026
- UMA status
- resolved
- Resolution source
- PrimarynatoTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
+5.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Price move
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 100¢; flat in the last hour.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Mar 3, 2026
- UMA status
- resolved
- Resolution source
- PrimarynatoTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market appears resolved. The useful check is whether the source and final oracle state match the displayed outcome.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: nato
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election? State: Resolved YES — officially resolved Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election? State: officially resolved Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowRecent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas is scheduled for November 3, 2026, to elect one member of the United States Senate to represent Texas. Party primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026, with runoff elections on May 26, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority in the primary. This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections. This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution. If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
electionReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "election" — matched the Politics rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?"?
As of Sun, 14 Jun 2026 15:58:25 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +3.4pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +5.9pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Mar 3, 2026 (2026-03-03T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved).
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $308.9K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $0.00. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
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