Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?
Probability
42¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$310.48
Liquidity
$27.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 01:11SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 43¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 43¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas is scheduled for November 3, 2026, to elect one member of the United States Senate to represent Texas. Party primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026, with runoff elections on May 26, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority in the primary. This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections. This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution. If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Mar 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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