Costly-Birch
0x83663086125ebb9c9a15a2796b66e4d26c2824fe
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
3
Open notional
$24.78
Total PnL
$-4.47
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?
11 shares @ 91.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$9.88
$0.16
- NO
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 91.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$9.18
$0.20
- NO
Will Ricardo Ruiz Velasco be arrested in 2026?
11 shares @ 94.0¢·now 51.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$5.72
$-4.83
Recent activity
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$5.48Jul 23, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$5.18Jul 22, 01:15 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?$5.50Jul 21, 10:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?$5.15Jul 20, 03:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Max Homa finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 The Open Championship?$3.24Jul 19, 19:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alexander Noren finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 The Open Championship?$1.06Jul 19, 17:52 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 18?$5.42Jul 18, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Max Homa finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 The Open Championship?$3.09Jul 18, 09:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alexander Noren finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 The Open Championship?$1.02Jul 18, 01:13 UTC
- REDEEMIran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?$5.25Jul 18, 00:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 18?$5.10Jul 18, 00:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump accuse Germany of election interference by July 16?$5.30Jul 17, 04:02 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 15?$5.19Jul 16, 03:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump accuse Germany of election interference by July 16?$5.12Jul 16, 02:43 UTC
- TRADESELL0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 14?$5.24Jul 16, 01:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 15?$4.99Jul 14, 00:37 UTC
- TRADEBUY0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 14?$4.99Jul 14, 00:37 UTC
- TRADESELLIran successfully targets shipping on July 10?$5.09Jul 12, 13:02 UTC
- TRADESELLIran successfully targets shipping on July 9?$5.25Jul 10, 14:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran successfully targets shipping on July 10?$1.32Jul 10, 09:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $4.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 17, 07:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 07:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.