Will Trump accuse Germany of election interference by July 16?

• 01
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk observation firing

  Expires in 66h.

• 02
  Liquidity

  Thin liquidity

  Only $17.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly alleges that interference by the listed country has occurred in any US election held after the 2016 US presidential election between market creation and July 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying interference includes, but is not limited to: manipulation of vote tallies or voting machines; hacking of election infrastructure; casting of fraudulent ballots; coordinated disinformation or influence campaigns intended to alter the election's outcome; or illegal foreign funding of campaigns. Allegations limited to procedural irregularities, administrative errors, ordinary lobbying, legal foreign media coverage, or fraud of domestic or unspecified origin will not qualify. The alleged interference must be attributed to the government of the listed country, a state-affiliated entity, organization, or nationals of the listed country acting in that capacity. The actor must be identified at least at the national level (e.g., "China," "Russian operatives," "Iranian hackers"). A qualifying statement must definitively allege that election interference occurred. Statements that are clearly satirical, hypothetical, or rhetorical will not qualify (e.g., "Did China interfere? Who knows," "If China interfered...", "They could easily interfere”). A statement need not use the word "interference." Any phrasing that communicates the three elements above (e.g., "China stole the election," "Russia rigged the vote in Pennsylvania") will qualify. Reposts, retweets, or shares of third-party content will qualify only if accompanied by original commentary from Trump that itself meets the criteria above, or if the repost includes an unambiguous endorsement of a qualifying claim (e.g., "TRUE!"). A bare repost without comment will not qualify. Statements made by representatives will not alone qualify. Reports of private conversations, leaked audio not intended for public release, and secondhand accounts will not qualify. Any public statement from the listed individual, written or verbal, will qualify. Speeches in which the listed individual begins speaking within the time frame of this market will qualify, even if their allegation falls outside the market’s timeframe. The resolution source for this market will be public statements by Donald Trump.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.