Hidden-Sport
0x838b5142bcce6174be0dcc37a633dba8842746ed
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
37
Open notional
$192.41
Total PnL
$-32.42
Realised
$1.08
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 37- YES
Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
103 shares @ 22.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$40.77
$18.06
- YES
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
210 shares @ 11.8¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.10
$-0.60
- NO
Will Gérald Darmanin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
21 shares @ 97.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$19.89
$-0.11
- NO
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
20 shares @ 39.0¢·now 71.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$14.20
$6.40
- NO
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
30 shares @ 24.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$12.15
$4.95
- YES
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
20 shares @ 49.7¢·now 52.0¢·exp Oct 24, 2027$10.40
$0.47
- YES
Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?
150 shares @ 20.5¢·now 5.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$8.25
$-22.45
- YES
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
67 shares @ 15.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$7.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by August 31, 2026?
125 shares @ 10.0¢·now 4.1¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$5.11
$-7.34
- YES
Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
14 shares @ 35.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$4.50
$-0.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$0.27Aug 17, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gérald Darmanin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$20.02Aug 17, 20:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gérald Darmanin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$0.54Aug 17, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jean Castex announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?$2.40Aug 17, 06:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jean Castex announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?$1.20Aug 17, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sébastien Lecornu announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?$1.82Aug 16, 08:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?$7.20Aug 11, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?$7.80Aug 11, 00:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?$1.40Aug 10, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYForeign intervention in Gaza by September 30?$2.80Aug 7, 18:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?$1.00Aug 5, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?$0.66Aug 5, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?$0.60Aug 5, 21:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?$0.44Aug 5, 21:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYForeign intervention in Gaza by August 31?$3.00Aug 5, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?$0.60Aug 5, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?$20.00Aug 5, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYForeign intervention in Gaza by September 30?$24.00Aug 5, 19:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Hell" during his Executive Order signing?$2.83Aug 3, 23:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Democrat" during his Executive Order signing?$1.49Aug 3, 20:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $5.32
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 11:30 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 21:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.