U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
Probability
20¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$2.5K
Liquidity
$14.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
-3.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5999.0h
- 01:00SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5999h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 21¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 22¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 22¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 22¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 22¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 20¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify. High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).