Wallet profile

Lucky-Pear

0x843c0fdaab99f50aa1ebc7002e6e31cfdd0d4863

activity 74/100

Wallet digest

active

Activity score

74/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$13.0K

Total PnL

$-10.81

Realised

$-0.73

Win rate

10%

10 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

Recent activity

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

Ledger volume

$43.0K

Trades

3

Buy share

0%

Window

May 28, 12:40 UTC → Jun 5, 04:44 UTC

Last 30 days · daily volumemax $0.00

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

23/100
read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

10% win rate over 10 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

0/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal
review

41 live trades, 7 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.

Resolved-only track record
review

10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

0%

Sample

limited

7 ledger trades

Top market concentration

US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?

$36.5K · 85% of recorded whale volume

Recorded market concentration

US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?85% of recorded volume$36.5KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?15% of recorded volume$6.5K

Profile dimensions

Activity70 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence33 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry1 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk55 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
41
Avg trade size
$0.01
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
Jul 1, 19:20 UTC
Last active
Jul 7, 03:45 UTC
Win rate sample
10 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 11:53:26 UTC·src:Polymarket Data