0x843e8947c303fdbab39ef3d1c8482b1eb7eae477
0x843e8947c303fdbab39ef3d1c8482b1eb7eae477
Wallet digest
Activity score
99/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
20
Open notional
$942.58
Total PnL
$-178.82
Realised
$33.57
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
136 shares @ 74.7¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$104.18
$2.54
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 29?
112 shares @ 59.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$93.15
$27.33
- NO
Will PH win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections?
97 shares @ 67.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$72.49
$7.30
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 29?
92 shares @ 71.0¢·now 76.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$70.24
$4.62
- NO
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
84 shares @ 75.7¢·now 77.8¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$64.97
$1.67
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on July 29?
129 shares @ 51.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$64.06
$-1.94
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 29?
127 shares @ 52.0¢·now 48.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$60.89
$-5.07
- NO
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.70T and $0.80T on July 31?
121 shares @ 52.6¢·now 48.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$58.52
$-4.95
- NO
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?
97 shares @ 66.3¢·now 58.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$56.87
$-7.47
- NO
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?
132 shares @ 48.0¢·now 36.5¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$48.35
$-15.23
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 29?$18.09Jul 28, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 29?$1.08Jul 28, 20:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 29?$2.60Jul 28, 20:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 29?$45.26Jul 28, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 29?$37.15Jul 28, 18:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on July 29?$12.24Jul 28, 18:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 29?$0.86Jul 28, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 29?$0.14Jul 28, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 29?$0.62Jul 28, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 29?$3.06Jul 28, 17:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on July 29?$41.80Jul 28, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on July 29?$55.08Jul 28, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 29?$3.66Jul 28, 14:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 29?$7.34Jul 28, 14:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 29?$2.45Jul 28, 14:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 29?$9.79Jul 28, 14:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 29?$23.31Jul 28, 13:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 29?$3.55Jul 28, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 29?$15.75Jul 28, 13:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 29?$40.98Jul 28, 12:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $29.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 20:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 20:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.