Celebrated-Crisis
0x8465b822ff43a93fd3dcefcd42b1094f1d976cd7
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
4
Open notional
$1.0K
Total PnL
$390.01
Realised
$-9.33
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- EVEN
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Kills?
803 shares @ 50.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$803.00
$398.29
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?
255 shares @ 84.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$212.93
$-1.27
- NO
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
4 shares @ 45.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.82
$1.02
- YES
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
4 shares @ 19.1¢·now 51.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.07
$1.31
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?$0.00Jun 17, 10:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?$1.00Jun 17, 10:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?$2.00Jun 17, 10:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Khamenei post 20-39 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?$0.00Jun 17, 10:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Polymarket mindshare hit 75%?$0.00Jun 17, 10:12 UTC
- REDEEMSouthern Illinois Salukis vs. Evansville Aces$0.00Jun 17, 10:12 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - February 24, 4PM ET$0.00Jun 17, 10:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Pheu Thai Party (PT) win 110 or more seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?$284.00Jun 17, 10:12 UTC
- REDEEMQuerétaro FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 1.5$0.00Jun 17, 10:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Once Upon a Farm's market cap be between $800M and $850M at market close on IPO day?$0.00Jun 17, 10:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" while addressing the nation on December 17?$0.00Jun 17, 10:12 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Southern Illinois Salukis (-3.5)$0.00Jun 17, 10:12 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $400M raised on Coinbase in 2026?$68.64Apr 27, 10:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYMap 2: Odd/Even Total Kills?$404.71Apr 23, 13:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Malta advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?$213.72Apr 21, 08:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?$3.90Apr 21, 05:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by April 30?$0.51Apr 21, 03:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by April 30?$22.43Apr 21, 03:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Czechia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?$465.92Apr 13, 09:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Czechia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?$249.60Apr 13, 09:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $156.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 7, 10:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 17, 10:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.