Distorted-Running
0x8469de3c0d2b79752b01b80e76b32be915b965a4
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
21
Open notional
$10.18
Total PnL
$-13.22
Realised
$4.05
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Will Nikolai Denkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$2.10
$1.10
- YES
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?
30 shares @ 6.7¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.35
$-0.65
- YES
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?
11 shares @ 9.0¢·now 11.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$1.29
$0.29
- YES
Tim Walz in jail by December 31?
17 shares @ 6.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.25
$0.25
- YES
NATO dissolves before 2027?
25 shares @ 8.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.11
$-0.89
- NO
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?
1 shares @ 94.2¢·now 93.2¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.99
$-0.01
- YES
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 4.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.98
$-0.02
- YES
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?
1 shares @ 88.1¢·now 42.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.49
$-0.51
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?
14 shares @ 7.0¢·now 1.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.20
$-0.80
- YES
Will Caio Borralho be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
18 shares @ 1.0¢·now 1.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.19
$0.01
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?$1.49Jun 12, 23:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mexico win on 2026-06-11?$1.43Jun 11, 23:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?$1.02Jun 11, 16:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win on 2026-06-11?$1.01Jun 11, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nikolai Denkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?$1.00Jun 5, 22:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Xi not shake hands during the day of their next meeting in 2026?$0.26May 14, 01:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Xi not shake hands during the day of their next meeting in 2026?$0.22May 14, 01:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Xi not shake hands during the day of their next meeting in 2026?$0.20May 14, 01:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Xi not shake hands during the day of their next meeting in 2026?$0.27May 14, 01:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Xi not shake hands during the day of their next meeting in 2026?$0.04May 14, 01:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Xi handshake last less than 2 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?$1.00May 14, 00:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?$0.24May 11, 06:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nikolai Denkov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?$3.18May 8, 14:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nikolai Denkov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?$1.00May 8, 14:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nikolai Denkov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?$0.03May 8, 14:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nikolai Denkov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?$1.00May 8, 14:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nikolai Denkov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?$0.10May 8, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nikolai Denkov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?$0.10May 8, 04:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nikolai Denkov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?$0.02May 8, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rosen Zhelyazkov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?$0.04May 8, 04:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $0.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 30, 02:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 12, 23:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.