Tim Walz in jail by December 31?
Probability
7¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$16.75
Liquidity
$19.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Thin liquidity
Only $19.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 2
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowRecent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Walz serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Mar 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.