0x84b72babb1196f93213505f7e5b6bf36f834eeb5
0x84b72babb1196f93213505f7e5b6bf36f834eeb5
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
30
Open notional
$100.23
Total PnL
$10.10
Realised
$-0.23
Win rate
0%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- YES
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
44 shares @ 69.9¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$38.57
$8.09
- NO
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?
14 shares @ 75.5¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.11
$0.55
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
10 shares @ 60.9¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.21
$3.21
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
9 shares @ 32.1¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.72
$4.72
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 18?
4 shares @ 77.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$3.87
$0.54
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 19?
5 shares @ 80.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$3.73
$-0.28
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 19?
4 shares @ 79.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$3.48
$0.15
- NO
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
2 shares @ 87.0¢·now 96.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.21
$0.21
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on August 17?
2 shares @ 46.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$2.17
$1.17
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 17?
2 shares @ 46.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$2.17
$1.17
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 20?$1.03Aug 18, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 20?$1.03Aug 18, 07:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 20?$1.02Aug 18, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 19?$4.04Aug 18, 05:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on August 19?$1.02Aug 18, 03:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on August 19?$1.03Aug 18, 02:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 19?$3.36Aug 18, 00:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 18?$1.03Aug 17, 19:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 19?$1.03Aug 17, 18:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 19?$1.03Aug 17, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 19?$1.02Aug 17, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 19?$1.02Aug 17, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 18?$1.03Aug 17, 16:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 16?$0.00Aug 17, 12:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 15?$1.69Aug 17, 12:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on August 16?$2.08Aug 17, 12:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 16?$2.17Aug 17, 12:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 15?$2.33Aug 17, 12:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 16?$2.38Aug 17, 12:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on August 15?$2.50Aug 17, 12:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $1.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 14, 08:19 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 08:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.