Jaded-Professor
0x8569e4b11e87760f15bfb551939eb7d236f12267
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
115
Open notional
$3.2K
Total PnL
$-700.35
Realised
$34.23
Win rate
81%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 115- YES
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?
944 shares @ 99.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$943.26
$6.48
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
754 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$747.93
$-1.91
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
454 shares @ 81.5¢·now 86.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$392.57
$22.67
- NO
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
158 shares @ 70.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$138.89
$28.41
- NO
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?
93 shares @ 97.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$92.74
$1.99
- NO
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
90 shares @ 84.5¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$84.74
$8.99
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
82 shares @ 87.5¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$74.94
$3.30
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
48 shares @ 76.5¢·now 72.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$35.20
$-1.74
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
46 shares @ 78.9¢·now 75.5¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$34.63
$-1.55
- NO
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
37 shares @ 91.7¢·now 91.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.27
$-0.27
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?$7.57Jul 23, 00:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$4.87Jul 23, 00:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$20.54Jul 23, 00:21 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$10.32Jul 23, 00:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$7.48Jul 23, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$4.71Jul 22, 18:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$13.86Jul 22, 10:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$13.67Jul 22, 10:02 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$4.35Jul 22, 09:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$735.88Jul 22, 05:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$5.84Jul 22, 02:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$15.65Jul 22, 00:38 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$1.72Jul 22, 00:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?$13.98Jul 22, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$7.12Jul 21, 16:51 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$8.71Jul 21, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?$0.70Jul 21, 16:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
81% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $45.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 16:39 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 00:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.