Noteworthy-Scarification
0x85b808a1a3ac18dcfe31d0f010d09d598598c84d
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
50
Open notional
$858.53
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$-154.37
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 50- NO
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
209 shares @ 90.3¢·now 96.2¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$201.25
$12.35
- NO
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?
210 shares @ 88.9¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$198.21
$11.65
- NO
GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?
200 shares @ 85.0¢·now 91.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$182.60
$12.60
- NO
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026?
100 shares @ 54.0¢·now 96.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$96.25
$42.25
- NO
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
200 shares @ 60.6¢·now 25.1¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$50.30
$-70.90
- NO
Betmoar FDV above $400M one day after launch?
44 shares @ 89.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$40.70
$1.54
- NO
Betmoar FDV above $100M one day after launch?
50 shares @ 79.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$39.75
$0.25
- NO
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
134 shares @ 85.9¢·now 14.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.77
$-95.34
- YES
Will Theo launch a token by September 30 2026?
60 shares @ 81.0¢·now 17.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$10.20
$-38.40
- YES
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO before 2027?
119 shares @ 17.2¢·now 5.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.89
$-13.50
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) settle over $6,200 on the final trading day of June 2026?$56.00Jul 19, 12:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Perena launch a token by June 30, 2026?$100.00Jul 19, 12:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?$30.20Jun 27, 17:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?$48.91Jun 27, 17:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$200.00Jun 27, 17:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?$253.00Jun 27, 17:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$20.28Jun 1, 11:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$50.41Jun 1, 11:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?$10.00May 31, 21:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$15.00May 31, 21:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$30.00May 30, 16:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $95 in May?$50.31May 30, 16:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $248 in May?$50.82May 30, 16:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May?$68.00May 30, 16:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in May?$79.44May 30, 16:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in May?$80.22May 30, 16:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 in May?$142.74May 30, 16:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?$159.13May 30, 16:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $264 in May?$216.33May 30, 16:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?$50.25May 29, 16:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
21 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 21
- Avg trade size
- $15.54
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 6, 02:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 12:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.