Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
Probability
27¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
+1.5pp
24h Vol
$408.22
Liquidity
$4.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 27¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $4.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 841.6h
Price movement
+1.5pp over the last 24h, now 27¢.
Biggest hourly move: -9.5pp at 3d ago (to 28¢).
Show top 8 of 47 hourly moves
- 15:00 · -9.0pp → 25¢
- 13:00 · -9.0pp → 25¢
- 12:00 · -9.0pp → 25¢
- 09:00 · -9.0pp → 26¢
- 1d ago · -9.0pp → 26¢
- 1d ago · -9.0pp → 26¢
- 3d ago · -9.0pp → 28¢
- 3d ago · -9.5pp → 28¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
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