Nautical-Walnut
0x85e1feb614dc5719f3e21689e1e59d16109e2a0d
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
64
Open notional
$203.45
Total PnL
$-100.10
Realised
$1.09
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 64- NO
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February?
71 shares @ 99.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$70.56
$0.56
- NO
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?
23 shares @ 88.6¢·now 93.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.16
$1.16
- NO
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?
14 shares @ 48.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$14.43
$7.43
- YES
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
11 shares @ 94.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.59
$0.59
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
6 shares @ 88.0¢·now 95.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.43
$0.43
- NO
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?
5 shares @ 95.0¢·now 96.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.06
$0.06
- NO
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
4 shares @ 90.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$4.42
$0.42
- NO
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
4 shares @ 93.0¢·now 95.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.11
$0.11
- YES
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
4 shares @ 79.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$3.80
$0.80
- NO
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?
3 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.37
$0.37
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$4.00Feb 17, 20:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$10.00Feb 17, 20:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the government shutdown last 7 days or more?$2.33Feb 17, 20:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the government shutdown last 60 days or more?$3.12Feb 17, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?$17.80Feb 2, 15:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI be acquired before 2027?$20.00Feb 2, 15:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?$20.00Feb 2, 15:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February?$70.00Feb 1, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?$2.00Feb 1, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026?$3.00Feb 1, 15:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit Greenland by March 31?$2.00Feb 1, 15:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?$2.00Feb 1, 15:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?$1.00Feb 1, 15:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYMoltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?$3.00Feb 1, 15:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February?$2.00Feb 1, 15:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of February?$2.00Feb 1, 15:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the government shutdown last 7 days or more?$2.00Feb 1, 15:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX have 12 or more launches in January?$1.05Feb 1, 15:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 29, 2026?$1.18Feb 1, 15:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) settle over $120 on the final trading day of January 2026?$1.25Feb 1, 15:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $5.91
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 21, 15:30 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 17, 20:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.