Rosy-Suppression
0x85ee84be50f99d9ec7c379f9c56442aa7529a64a
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
171
Open notional
$1.2K
Total PnL
$-2.1K
Realised
$197.64
Win rate
69%
70 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 171- NO
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
525 shares @ 79.5¢·now 65.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$343.82
$-74.04
- NO
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
109 shares @ 72.7¢·now 96.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$105.00
$26.11
- NO
Will Lucian Isar be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
101 shares @ 88.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$100.28
$11.58
- NO
Will Vasile Dîncu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
100 shares @ 87.6¢·now 99.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$99.70
$12.07
- NO
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?
90 shares @ 77.9¢·now 89.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$80.10
$10.03
- NO
Will Anca Dragu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
78 shares @ 89.8¢·now 99.6¢·exp May 31, 2026$77.90
$7.64
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the CO-03 House seat?
90 shares @ 1.0¢·now 67.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2026$60.30
$59.40
- YES
Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?
88 shares @ 41.0¢·now 67.0¢·exp Sep 15, 2026$58.96
$22.88
- NO
Will Austin Sidwell be the Republican nominee for AL-01?
40 shares @ 94.3¢·now 99.6¢·exp May 19, 2026$39.82
$2.08
- NO
James Norton announced as next James Bond?
50 shares @ 54.0¢·now 75.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$37.85
$10.85
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the CO-03 House seat?$3.20Jul 28, 18:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Uranium" this week?$18.59Jul 28, 18:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Thomas Chalifoux be the Republican nominee for FL-09?$2.10Jul 28, 18:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Thomas Chalifoux be the Republican nominee for FL-09?$2.10Jul 28, 16:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?$4.28Jul 28, 16:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List by August 31, 2026?$3.71Jul 28, 16:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the CO-03 House seat?$3.20Jul 28, 16:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Thomas Chalifoux be the Republican nominee for FL-09?$2.10Jul 28, 15:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?$1.30Jul 28, 15:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida?$0.40Jul 28, 15:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?$1.20Jul 28, 15:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Thomas Chalifoux be the Republican nominee for FL-09?$2.10Jul 28, 14:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?$3.26Jul 28, 14:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?$4.28Jul 28, 14:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$13.54Jul 28, 13:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$0.19Jul 28, 13:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iowa have the closest Senate race in 2026?$4.38Jul 28, 13:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Thomas Chalifoux be the Republican nominee for FL-09?$2.10Jul 28, 13:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?$3.26Jul 28, 13:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump pardon Steve Bannon before 2027?$4.39Jul 28, 13:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
69% win rate over 70 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
70 closed markets, 69% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $7.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 18:27 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 18:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 70 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.