Bumpy-Physical-Range
0x85f9adc40e9da56818a009c9389fe1c0463cf3e0
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
21
Open notional
$25.52
Total PnL
$-25.32
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Will Little Joe escape again?
178 shares @ 2.8¢·now 3.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$6.85
$1.85
- NO
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
46 shares @ 16.6¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.34
$-3.25
- YES
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?
52 shares @ 13.5¢·now 7.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$3.92
$-3.08
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
196 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.47
$-1.53
- YES
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.4¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$1.13
$0.13
- YES
Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$1.10
$0.10
- YES
US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?
3 shares @ 31.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.02
$0.02
- YES
Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?
17 shares @ 6.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.92
$-0.08
- NO
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting?
26 shares @ 3.8¢·now 2.7¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$0.71
$-0.29
- YES
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.70
$-0.30
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?$1.03Jul 23, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AI be charged with a crime before 2027?$1.05Jul 23, 18:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.26Jul 23, 14:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 22?$1.04Jul 22, 18:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$0.00Jul 22, 18:12 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$4.05Jul 22, 18:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$1.01Jul 22, 18:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$1.02Jul 22, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$1.02Jul 22, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$1.04Jul 22, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$1.03Jul 22, 18:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?$1.15Jul 22, 18:03 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET$1.96Jul 22, 16:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET$1.04Jul 22, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET$1.03Jul 22, 16:36 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET$5.64Jul 22, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET$1.05Jul 22, 16:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET$1.02Jul 22, 16:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET$1.02Jul 22, 16:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET$1.02Jul 22, 16:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $1.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 12:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 18:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.