Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?

1. 1

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.

2. 2

   Thin liquidity

   Only $15.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any AI or LLM by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The charge or indictment of a company or organization behind the AI or large language model will not be sufficient. Charges or indictments must be of the AI or LLM itself. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.