This-Councilor
0x870535b39b1f8902a3be94f15158b39961058354
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
99
Open notional
$12.2K
Total PnL
$-2.3K
Realised
$298.18
Win rate
67%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 99- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
2330 shares @ 88.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.1K
$81.55
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1476 shares @ 72.2¢·now 78.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.2K
$96.03
- NO
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
1200 shares @ 59.7¢·now 60.5¢·exp Sep 6, 2026$726.00
$10.00
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
1005 shares @ 58.5¢·now 58.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$587.92
$0.38
- NO
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
760 shares @ 58.4¢·now 71.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$543.25
$99.63
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?
560 shares @ 89.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$498.40
$0.00
- NO
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
500 shares @ 93.8¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$490.00
$20.90
- YES
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
1896 shares @ 31.4¢·now 22.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$426.56
$-169.66
- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
400 shares @ 90.8¢·now 97.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$390.97
$27.60
- YES
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
800 shares @ 56.0¢·now 46.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$372.00
$-76.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?$43.00Jul 12, 08:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYPresident Trump to Attend World Cup Final?$4.48Jul 12, 04:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYPresident Trump to Attend World Cup Final?$11.50Jul 12, 03:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYPresident Trump to Attend World Cup Final?$11.50Jul 12, 03:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYPresident Trump to Attend World Cup Final?$11.50Jul 12, 03:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYPresident Trump to Attend World Cup Final?$12.65Jul 12, 03:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYPresident Trump to Attend World Cup Final?$11.50Jul 12, 03:24 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?$10.32Jul 12, 02:49 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?$103.75Jul 12, 02:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYPresident Trump to Attend World Cup Final?$11.50Jul 12, 02:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYPresident Trump to Attend World Cup Final?$11.50Jul 12, 02:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYPresident Trump to Attend World Cup Final?$5.87Jul 12, 02:02 UTC
- YIELD$0.20Jul 12, 00:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$194.20Jul 12, 00:17 UTC
- REWARD$1.95Jul 12, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$108.00Jul 11, 22:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$110.00Jul 11, 22:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?$170.00Jul 11, 14:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?$195.88Jul 11, 12:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$184.00Jul 11, 10:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $26.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 11, 10:03 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 08:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.