Subtle-Library
0x871a1ab40c20199e2e8fbf705193f03e9eb71451
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
44
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.0K
Realised
$-16.83
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 44- NO
Will Nancy Pelosi announce her retirement by June 30, 2026?
51500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-108.36
- YES
Will the government shutdown end November 20?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?
500 shares @ 10.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$0.00
$-52.09
- YES
Will the government shutdown end November 21 or later?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on November 11?
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 11, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase November 25-December 1?
400 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 2, 2025$0.00
$-14.00
- YES
Will the government shutdown end November 17?
400 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will the government shutdown end November 16?
400 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will the government shutdown end November 18?
400 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will the Government shutdown end before October 15?
370 shares @ 7.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 15, 2025$0.00
$-26.76
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYEngland vs. Argentina: Team to Advance AND France vs. Spain: Team to Advance$16.27Jul 14, 02:21 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$16.28Apr 14, 00:30 UTC
- TRADESELLLabour leadership election scheduled by March 31?$3.46Jan 11, 07:47 UTC
- TRADESELLOpensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?$33.92Jan 11, 07:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?$740.62Jan 11, 07:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?$404.23Jan 11, 07:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day?$4.00Jan 11, 07:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on IPO day?$3.43Jan 11, 07:45 UTC
- REDEEMEnhanced ACA premium tax credits extended in 2025?$100.00Jan 4, 16:15 UTC
- REDEEMLighter Airdrop on December 29?$500.00Dec 31, 19:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?$19.99Dec 25, 05:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?$20.00Dec 22, 17:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?$20.00Dec 21, 17:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?$28.10Dec 18, 20:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?$28.90Dec 18, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?$9.92Dec 18, 08:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?$1.27Dec 18, 06:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?$12.40Dec 18, 05:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?$11.60Dec 18, 05:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYEnhanced ACA premium tax credits extended in 2025?$2.00Dec 18, 02:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $71.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 15, 08:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 02:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.