Naive-Absence
0x878dc388c58f3137ce2c9a6176506c4094691a9b
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
188
Open notional
$2.2K
Total PnL
$-751.24
Realised
$3.1K
Win rate
63%
80 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 188- NO
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
600 shares @ 62.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$600.00
$224.00
- NO
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
200 shares @ 95.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$200.00
$9.60
- YES
Will Cyndi Munson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary election?
100 shares @ 89.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$100.00
$10.50
- NO
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026?
100 shares @ 70.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$100.00
$30.00
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?
100 shares @ 87.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$90.50
$3.50
- NO
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
80 shares @ 93.6¢·now 99.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$79.66
$4.65
- NO
Will Eric Chung be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?
67 shares @ 33.5¢·now 82.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$54.69
$32.35
- NO
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.50T and 1.75T?
50 shares @ 68.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$50.00
$16.00
- NO
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?
51 shares @ 85.5¢·now 97.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$49.50
$6.11
- YES
Will Pete Ricketts be the Republican nominee for Senate in Nebraska?
47 shares @ 97.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$47.13
$1.37
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
77/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 80 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
80 closed markets, 63% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 9, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 80 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.