Noted-Drink
0x882b45bba3afa6c269b4c226aecd86d06e81a746
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
26
Open notional
$343.99
Total PnL
$-246.72
Realised
$371.41
Win rate
59%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
180 shares @ 76.3¢·now 75.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$135.00
$-2.40
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
160 shares @ 46.1¢·now 45.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$72.80
$-0.90
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?
80 shares @ 77.5¢·now 69.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$55.19
$-6.81
- YES
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
60 shares @ 53.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$23.10
$-8.70
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
60 shares @ 24.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.70
$0.30
- YES
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?
30 shares @ 46.3¢·now 46.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$13.95
$0.05
- YES
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?
20 shares @ 51.0¢·now 55.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.00
$0.80
- YES
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
85 shares @ 26.7¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.78
$-12.96
- YES
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in July?
38 shares @ 70.5¢·now 16.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$6.27
$-20.53
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
10 shares @ 22.0¢·now 20.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.05
$-0.15
Recent activity
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?$2.50Jul 29, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?$2.51Jul 29, 11:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$4.80Jul 29, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$2.40Jul 29, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$4.80Jul 29, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$2.40Jul 29, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$4.50Jul 29, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$2.20Jul 29, 10:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?$0.29Jul 29, 10:54 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?$7.60Jul 29, 10:13 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?$7.60Jul 29, 10:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$4.50Jul 29, 10:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 15?$7.60Jul 29, 10:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 15?$7.60Jul 29, 10:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by December 31?$5.10Jul 29, 10:10 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?$7.40Jul 29, 08:51 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?$5.18Jul 29, 08:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by September 30?$4.60Jul 29, 07:18 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$5.30Jul 29, 07:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$4.50Jul 29, 07:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
59% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $7.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 21:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 13:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.