Pink-Activation
0x88bb4008daec0ad041df6e85d50684cf5e148d2c
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
5
Open notional
$4.67
Total PnL
$-76.71
Realised
$-1.40
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?
5 shares @ 45.0¢·now 93.4¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$4.67
$2.42
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by July 31?
83 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.00
$-14.94
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.15T by July 31?
72 shares @ 55.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.00
$-40.04
- YES
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550?
47 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-7.99
- YES
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?
41 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-14.76
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.05T by July 31?$36.00Aug 1, 19:02 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael military action against Greater Beirut by July 21?$8.00Jul 25, 06:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by July 31?$6.95Jul 15, 12:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by July 31?$8.26Jul 13, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.05T by July 31?$30.08Jul 13, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.15T by July 31?$12.54Jul 13, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.15T by July 31?$28.00Jul 13, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael military action against Greater Beirut by July 21?$6.56Jul 12, 19:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?$2.25Jul 12, 19:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?$20.00Jun 11, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?$9.60Jun 9, 12:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550?$8.26Jun 9, 12:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?$15.14Jun 9, 12:31 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 8, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLDeel IPO before 2027?$0.38Jun 7, 19:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$3.35Jun 7, 19:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more?$1.14Jun 7, 19:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?$0.91Jun 7, 19:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T?$0.34Jun 7, 19:12 UTC
- TRADESELLAnthropic IPO before 2027?$1.02Jun 7, 19:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 74/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $11.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 7, 19:03 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 1, 19:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.