Soft-Ecosystem
0x88e3476f07ee09a9dbfd5b3980fedd49f118e426
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
42
Open notional
$960.30
Total PnL
$13.92
Realised
$-6.11
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 42- NO
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
651 shares @ 88.1¢·now 90.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$590.25
$16.95
- NO
Will Pauline Hanson be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?
187 shares @ 69.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Sep 23, 2028$152.24
$23.33
- NO
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
77 shares @ 3.9¢·now 98.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$75.99
$72.99
- NO
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
31 shares @ 57.2¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$31.00
$13.20
- NO
Will Congress override any veto in 2026?
30 shares @ 75.3¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.77
$5.17
- YES
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
33 shares @ 61.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$19.84
$-0.16
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
50 shares @ 24.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.25
$0.25
- NO
Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 61.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$9.96
$3.87
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
24 shares @ 37.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$9.95
$1.08
- YES
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
15 shares @ 67.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jan 20, 2029$9.93
$-0.07
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$12.00Jul 29, 19:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Angela Rayner be in the Burnham cabinet?$1.20Jul 21, 08:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Wes Streeting be in the Burnham cabinet?$5.32Jul 21, 08:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill John Healey be in the Burnham cabinet?$5.75Jul 20, 20:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alberta vote for independence in 2026?$19.36Jul 13, 19:16 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump signs housing bill by end of July?$18.73Jul 13, 04:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$2.00Jul 9, 00:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 9, 00:32 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$6.10Jul 8, 18:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Dan Barker win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?$0.02Jul 8, 17:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?$3.09Jul 8, 17:37 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $9.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 26, 16:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 19:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.