Milky-Hubcap
0x8a9df473b8ae38a1342b126ad8a2e25e814d69fb
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
106
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-5.4K
Realised
$-286.19
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 106- NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
5000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)
5000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?
996 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-11.46
- MOVISTAR KOI
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs
752 shares @ 23.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-174.38
- KARMINE CORP
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs
648 shares @ 36.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-236.00
- INVICTUS GAMING
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming - Game 4 Winner
474 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-109.04
- DEEP CROSS GAMING
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner
424 shares @ 34.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$0.00
$-144.94
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
400 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- JD GAMING
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs
360 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$0.00
$-140.52
- LOS RATONES
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season
356 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026$0.00
$-138.79
Recent activity
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$30.33Jun 23, 17:50 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$24.79Jun 22, 06:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$28.00Jun 20, 15:18 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strike on Mexico by December 31?$28.31Jun 20, 15:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$37.00Jun 20, 11:47 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strike on Mexico by December 31?$37.23Jun 20, 11:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strike on Mexico by December 31?$28.00Jun 15, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strike on Mexico by December 31?$50.00Jun 15, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$39.00Jun 15, 06:45 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strike on Mexico by December 31?$39.04Jun 15, 06:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strike on Mexico by December 31?$20.00Jun 15, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strike on Mexico by December 31?$20.00Jun 15, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner$15.31Jun 14, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner$36.53Jun 14, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner$15.34Jun 14, 15:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$6.67Jun 14, 15:02 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?$9.00Jun 14, 15:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner$40.09Jun 14, 12:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$8.37Jun 14, 12:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?$2.10Jun 14, 12:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $40.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 12, 10:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 23, 17:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.