Forceful-Encounter
0x8aa6417e742ecf8056aa0db05f551e6e69776316
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$3.00
Total PnL
$-206.35
Realised
$18.14
Win rate
100%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Wilton Simpson be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
1001 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Matt Gaetz be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Jimmy Patronis be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027?
7001 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- NO
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on May 12?
2950 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on May 13?
2413 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-2.41
- YES
Will NYC Mayor post 180-199 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?
2224 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.22
Recent activity
- TRADESELLOpensea FDV above $300M one day after launch?$10.33Jun 18, 10:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpensea FDV above $300M one day after launch?$16.95Jun 18, 10:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?$13.54Jun 15, 09:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?$13.91Jun 15, 09:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?$0.36Jun 12, 15:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?$2.90Jun 12, 15:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?$3.00Jun 12, 15:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?$13.10Jun 12, 01:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?$13.46Jun 12, 01:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?$18.66Jun 10, 00:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?$20.31Jun 10, 00:08 UTC
- REWARD$2.44Jun 10, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June?$16.46Jun 9, 14:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June?$17.59Jun 9, 14:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June?$1.41Jun 9, 14:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June?$0.41Jun 9, 14:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June?$1.61Jun 9, 14:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?$19.63Jun 9, 13:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?$20.12Jun 9, 13:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June?$20.05Jun 9, 13:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $12.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 4, 20:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 18, 10:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.