Punctual-Hydrogen
0x8b4410e877fa826c7e986dfb30a5be73d72163fb
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$4.5K
Total PnL
$-6.9K
Realised
$826.71
Win rate
56%
112 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
593 shares @ 43.6¢·now 63.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$376.34
$118.03
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
305 shares @ 60.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$202.83
$19.82
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
292 shares @ 58.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$194.30
$24.84
- YES
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
588 shares @ 17.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$149.99
$50.00
- NO
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
318 shares @ 36.2¢·now 42.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$135.33
$20.13
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
303 shares @ 43.8¢·now 44.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$134.75
$2.27
- YES
Will the National Party win 40-44 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
366 shares @ 31.0¢·now 34.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2026$124.47
$10.98
- YES
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
1183 shares @ 16.1¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$112.43
$-78.61
- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
1263 shares @ 9.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$107.37
$-6.32
- YES
Base FDV above $6B one day after launch?
299 shares @ 30.0¢·now 35.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$106.00
$16.31
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.02Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?$44.00Jul 24, 12:33 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 24, 00:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?$5.63Jul 23, 16:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the South African Reserve Bank hold at the July 2026 meeting?$18.00Jul 23, 15:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the South African Reserve Bank hike by 25 bps at the July 2026 meeting?$141.31Jul 23, 15:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLNothing Ever Happens: July$6.39Jul 22, 12:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Syria recognize Israel by December 31?$20.00Jul 22, 12:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?$20.69Jul 22, 10:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?$20.69Jul 22, 10:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?$20.69Jul 22, 10:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?$20.69Jul 22, 10:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?$15.25Jul 22, 09:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no one dissent the July Fed decision?$20.64Jul 22, 09:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?$3.17Jul 22, 09:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the South African Reserve Bank hike by 25 bps at the July 2026 meeting?$0.14Jul 22, 09:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
56% win rate over 112 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
112 closed markets, 56% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $7.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 02:36 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 112 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.