Upset-Marriage
0x8bc007fdf4f5be91d5551b5f9dc45450f1d712e6
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$638.54
Total PnL
$-665.59
Realised
$28.25
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1176 shares @ 17.0¢·now 16.4¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$193.53
$-6.47
- YES
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.5%?
126 shares @ 79.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$126.30
$26.30
- NO
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
111 shares @ 90.0¢·now 94.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$104.39
$4.39
- NO
Human moon landing in 2026?
107 shares @ 93.8¢·now 97.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$103.36
$3.36
- NO
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.5% and 1.0%?
57 shares @ 88.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$56.82
$6.82
- NO
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?
54 shares @ 92.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$54.14
$4.14
- NO
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?
6429 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Drake Maye win the Super Bowl LX MVP?
741 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- NO
US government shutdown Saturday?
453 shares @ 59.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-270.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET
420 shares @ 39.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-167.57
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.02Jun 14, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 12, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Mexico (-1.5)$121.95Jun 11, 21:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Mexico (-1.5)$50.88Jun 11, 16:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$204.98Jun 11, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYRuben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?$10.00May 2, 11:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?$50.19Apr 29, 22:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.5% and 1.0%?$50.30Apr 29, 22:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.5%?$101.04Apr 29, 22:05 UTC
- REDEEMUS strike on Cuba by January 31?$30.52Mar 27, 16:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?$31.58Mar 27, 16:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be less than 4 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?$41.28Mar 27, 16:27 UTC
- REDEEMUS strike on Mexico by January 31?$71.28Mar 27, 16:27 UTC
- REDEEMClaudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by January 31?$101.01Mar 27, 16:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?$102.24Mar 27, 16:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mexico’s February unemployment rate be 2.5%?$127.58Mar 27, 16:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mexico GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?$183.24Mar 27, 16:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mexico’s February unemployment rate be less than or equal to 2.4%?$289.64Mar 27, 16:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mexico’s February unemployment rate be 2.6%?$1.3KMar 27, 16:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $33.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 26, 20:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 00:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.