Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.5%?
Probability
43¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
-1.3pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$149.84
Probability (last 7 days)
+8.3pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 111.1h
- 08:56SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 111h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.6pp
to 43¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.3pp
to 44¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 45¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.6pp
to 46¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.9pp
to 50¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 47¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.3pp
to 50¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.9pp
to 47¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.1pp
to 50¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.8pp
to 44¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.4pp
to 42¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.9pp
to 48¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.3pp
to 52¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.3pp
to 43¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.2pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 45¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.7pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.8pp
to 45¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.4pp
to 49¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.4pp
to 47¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.1pp
to 47¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.6pp
to 52¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.6pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.9pp
to 46¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.3pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.7pp
to 39¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
12- 10¢0.0pp
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?
Macro · Vol $9.03
- 29¢-0.7pp
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 0.0%?
Macro · Vol $0.00
- 3¢+0.1pp
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?
Macro · Vol $0.00
- 36¢-7.5pp
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.5% and 1.0%?
Macro · Vol $0.00
- 2¢+0.2pp
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be over 2.5%?
Macro · Vol $0.00
- 23¢+14.5pp
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?
Macro · Vol $7.15
- 0¢-0.1pp
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $8.4M
- 0¢-0.1pp
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $5.5M
- 100¢+0.1pp
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $4.0M
- 0¢-0.1pp
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $3.1M
- 98¢+3.9pp
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Macro · Vol $918.0K
- 0¢-0.7pp
Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Macro · Vol $820.2K
Market Description
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (45.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).