0x8bc136465e186e94c501423e558f7ab3512046e1
0x8bc136465e186e94c501423e558f7ab3512046e1
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$10.88
Total PnL
$-219.11
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
125 shares @ 8.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$9.38
$-0.63
- YES
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?
500 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.75
$-9.25
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
300 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.75
$-9.25
- YES
Will Sophia Chikirou win the Paris mayor election?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the Momentum Movement (Momentum) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
5000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Jhonny Fernández win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election?
3333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
2500 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
1250 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?
1111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?
908 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-9.99
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?$10.00Mar 26, 03:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$100.00Mar 26, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Putin meet next in China?$10.00Mar 22, 15:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$10.00Mar 22, 15:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by April 30?$10.00Mar 22, 15:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?$10.00Mar 22, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jhonny Fernández win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election?$10.00Mar 22, 14:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sophia Chikirou win the Paris mayor election?$10.00Mar 22, 14:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$10.00Mar 22, 14:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?$10.00Mar 22, 14:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?$9.99Mar 22, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?$10.00Mar 22, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$10.00Mar 22, 14:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Momentum Movement (Momentum) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?$10.00Mar 22, 14:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$0.00Mar 19, 15:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?$0.00Mar 19, 15:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?$0.00Mar 19, 15:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$0.00Mar 19, 15:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$303.03Mar 19, 15:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$10.00Mar 10, 11:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $63.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 14, 08:34 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 26, 03:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.