Scrawny-Mole
0x8c7b26969470bd87494b5d406c3e84256d102a87
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
33
Open notional
$71.39
Total PnL
$-18.7K
Realised
$-1.2K
Win rate
14%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 33- YES
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
187 shares @ 45.6¢·now 21.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$40.17
$-45.08
- YES
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027?
1176 shares @ 29.9¢·now 1.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.88
$-335.69
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027?
200 shares @ 18.9¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.00
$-22.90
- YES
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
5 shares @ 41.0¢·now 7.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.35
$-1.70
- YES
Trump x Putin Meeting in Hungary by Dec 31?
23362 shares @ 13.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-3.2K
- YES
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?
6646 shares @ 16.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.1K
- YES
Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026?
5854 shares @ 47.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.8K
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?
4235 shares @ 33.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.4K
- YES
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
4081 shares @ 79.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.2K
- YES
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations by March 31?
2430 shares @ 28.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-684.04
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.13May 10, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?$11.1KMay 9, 16:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.26May 9, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.31May 8, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.31May 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.31May 6, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.31May 5, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.20May 4, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.22May 3, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.20May 2, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.26May 1, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.25Apr 30, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.26Apr 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.23Apr 28, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Apr 27, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.22Apr 26, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.20Apr 25, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.22Apr 24, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.22Apr 23, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.22Apr 22, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
14% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 1
- Avg trade size
- $11.1K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 23, 00:37 UTC
- Last active
- May 10, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.