Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?
Probability
18¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$54.98
Liquidity
$19.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
+4.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $19.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5984.1h
- 15:51SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 17¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 17¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 17¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 17¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 17¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 17¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 17¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 17¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 17¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 17¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 17¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 17¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 17¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 17¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 17¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 18¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ursula von der Leyen ceases to be the President of the European Commission for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of von der Leyen's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Commission and the European Union, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).