0x8dcda45f5bbcbb0bc5c43b6c886e2c63a1dda764
0x8dcda45f5bbcbb0bc5c43b6c886e2c63a1dda764
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$321.60
Total PnL
$-226.19
Realised
$-24.44
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 22?
72 shares @ 84.5¢·now 96.9¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$69.67
$8.92
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
145 shares @ 45.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$64.69
$-0.73
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 21?
57 shares @ 90.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$57.11
$5.71
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
95 shares @ 54.0¢·now 53.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$50.93
$-0.48
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?
51 shares @ 92.0¢·now 96.9¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$49.19
$2.46
- OVER
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5
60 shares @ 85.6¢·now 50.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$30.01
$-21.39
- YES
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the France vs England FIFA World Cup Match?
174 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-60.75
- YES
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
117 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-56.07
- NO
Will Trump say "Russia" during Speech to the Nation?
108 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-56.07
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?
25 shares @ 92.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-23.36
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$67.22Jul 22, 01:09 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate hike in 2026?$55.82Jul 22, 01:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$51.40Jul 21, 23:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?$57.03Jul 21, 23:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYPittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5$51.77Jul 21, 20:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$70.97Jul 21, 18:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate hike in 2026?$61.84Jul 21, 17:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$46.50Jul 21, 17:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 22?$61.22Jul 21, 16:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?$72.38Jul 21, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?$60.75Jul 21, 14:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?$66.60Jul 21, 14:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?$46.92Jul 21, 13:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$63.61Jul 21, 12:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$37.47Jul 21, 07:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the game go to extra innings?: Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros$54.68Jul 21, 03:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$44.83Jul 21, 02:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the game go to extra innings?: Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros$51.55Jul 21, 00:05 UTC
- REDEEMWTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 20?$50.41Jul 20, 23:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$46.73Jul 20, 20:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $53.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 18:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 01:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.