Single-Agency
0x8e7aa1b88993fe2ac3eb15940691a46ab4030f0e
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
158
Open notional
$1.3K
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$-53.46
Win rate
40%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 158- NO
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
178 shares @ 78.8¢·now 97.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$173.54
$33.05
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
200 shares @ 1.7¢·now 85.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$170.27
$166.88
- NO
Blue tsunami in 2026?
300 shares @ 67.5¢·now 55.5¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$166.50
$-36.00
- NO
Blue wave in 2026?
537 shares @ 27.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$136.82
$-8.09
- NO
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by May 1?
95 shares @ 55.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$94.72
$42.56
- NO
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
100 shares @ 83.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$89.00
$6.00
- YES
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
200 shares @ 45.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$81.00
$-9.00
- NO
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 250M by May 1?
80 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$80.00
$8.80
- NO
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by May 1?
80 shares @ 77.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$80.00
$18.40
- NO
Makina FDV above $200M one day after launch?
50 shares @ 90.0¢·now 92.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$46.33
$1.32
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 25, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 24, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 9, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.