Blue wave in 2026?
Probability
84¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$1.43
Liquidity
$26.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5248.0h
- 07:57SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5248h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 85¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 85¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 83¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 83¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 83¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House - Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Nov 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).