Ideal-Cleat
0x8ef7e1f316bdebb23d90c408c46c2a67dd127b01
Wallet digest
Activity score
45/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
65
Open notional
$6.02
Total PnL
$-51.39
Realised
$-1.08
Win rate
17%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 65- YES
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
2 shares @ 41.0¢·now 62.3¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$1.52
$0.52
- YES
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?
5 shares @ 22.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$0.98
$-0.02
- YES
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
1 shares @ 73.9¢·now 72.2¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.98
$-0.02
- YES
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?
2 shares @ 42.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.82
$-0.18
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
7 shares @ 15.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$0.37
$-0.63
- NO
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
3 shares @ 33.9¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.26
$-0.90
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in August 2026?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 17.4¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$0.17
$-0.33
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in August 2026?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 16.3¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$0.16
$-0.34
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in August 2026?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$0.15
$-0.36
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in August 2026?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$0.13
$-0.38
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$1.85Aug 20, 14:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$1.03Aug 20, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$1.07Aug 20, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs Raccoons (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Group Stage AND LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group AND Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs$0.50Aug 20, 08:39 UTC
- TRADESELLUS ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?$1.99Aug 19, 14:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?$1.00Aug 19, 14:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?$1.00Aug 19, 14:56 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$1.03Aug 19, 09:47 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$1.06Aug 19, 09:47 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$0.00Aug 19, 09:47 UTC
- REDEEMTesla (TSLA) Up or Down on August 7?$0.00Aug 19, 09:47 UTC
- REDEEMTesla (TSLA) Up or Down on August 7?$1.89Aug 19, 09:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?$1.69Aug 19, 09:46 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET$1.96Aug 19, 09:46 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET$0.00Aug 19, 09:46 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET$2.00Aug 19, 09:46 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET$0.00Aug 19, 09:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYNatural Gas (NG) Up or Down on August 19?$1.50Aug 19, 00:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYNatural Gas (NG) Up or Down on August 19?$2.50Aug 18, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYNatural Gas (NG) Up or Down on August 19?$2.50Aug 18, 20:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
17% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $1.20
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 12:47 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 14:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.