Tough-Interpretation
0x8f03266792fc4396e3c95268c65c0daffa8641ca
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
11
Open notional
$51.38
Total PnL
$0.15
Realised
$-4.57
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Will the Central Bank of Colombia decrease the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the July meeting?
20 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$20.09
$0.09
- NO
Will the Central Bank of Colombia decrease the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the July meeting?
10 shares @ 97.1¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$10.27
$0.27
- YES
Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the July meeting?
10 shares @ 39.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$7.55
$3.65
- NO
Will the Central Bank of Colombia decrease the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?
5 shares @ 50.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$4.50
$2.00
- YES
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by December 31?
5 shares @ 30.0¢·now 52.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.60
$1.10
- YES
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 24.5¢·now 22.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$2.20
$-0.25
- YES
Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the July meeting?
10 shares @ 30.6¢·now 15.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.55
$-1.51
- NO
Trump out as President by July 31?
1 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.00
$0.00
- NO
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 88.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.82
$-0.18
- YES
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
6 shares @ 17.0¢·now 9.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.53
$-0.47
Recent activity
- REDEEMWorld Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken?$1.00Jul 20, 00:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$15.00Jul 20, 00:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Argentina win on 2026-07-19?$13.51Jul 19, 22:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.11Jul 19, 21:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill England win on 2026-07-18?$0.00Jul 19, 21:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.00Jul 17, 15:08 UTC
- TRADESELLGustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31?$1.00Jul 16, 19:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the July meeting?$2.12Jul 16, 19:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the July meeting?$2.40Jul 16, 19:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the July meeting?$0.97Jul 16, 19:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.42Jul 16, 18:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.02Jul 16, 18:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?$0.25Jul 16, 05:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$13.84Jul 16, 03:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-19?$10.13Jul 16, 03:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill England win on 2026-07-18?$5.06Jul 16, 03:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill England win on 2026-07-15?$7.81Jul 15, 21:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.16Jul 15, 18:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWorld Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken?$1.00Jul 15, 15:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$3.41Jul 15, 04:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $3.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 01:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 00:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.