Sparse-Celsius
0x8f41129e43ebfbfe6075d0804f3b2bb763b3260e
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
89
Open notional
$32.3K
Total PnL
$4.2K
Realised
$5.7K
Win rate
87%
46 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 89- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
4700 shares @ 89.7¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.3K
$82.51
- YES
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?
3489 shares @ 96.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.5K
$124.09
- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
3500 shares @ 88.5¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.2K
$68.51
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
2000 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.0K
$3.00
- YES
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
1488 shares @ 93.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.5K
$95.65
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
1800 shares @ 75.4¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.4K
$55.04
- NO
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
1200 shares @ 89.6¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$11.00
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1200 shares @ 72.7¢·now 80.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$966.59
$94.60
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
1000 shares @ 82.6¢·now 94.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$939.99
$114.00
- NO
Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?
981 shares @ 93.5¢·now 93.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$912.16
$-5.22
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.00Jul 28, 17:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$0.00Jul 28, 17:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.01Jul 28, 17:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.00Jul 28, 17:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.00Jul 28, 17:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.01Jul 28, 17:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.00Jul 28, 17:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?$52.50Jul 28, 17:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.01Jul 28, 17:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$0.00Jul 28, 17:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.00Jul 28, 16:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.00Jul 28, 16:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$0.00Jul 28, 16:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.00Jul 28, 16:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.01Jul 28, 16:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.12Jul 28, 16:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?$3.37Jul 28, 16:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?$38.64Jul 28, 16:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.00Jul 28, 16:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.01Jul 28, 16:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
73/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
87% win rate over 46 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
46 closed markets, 87% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $19.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 15:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 17:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 46 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.