Sparse-Celsius
0x8f41129e43ebfbfe6075d0804f3b2bb763b3260e
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
91
Open notional
$23.5K
Total PnL
$-878.68
Realised
$1.3K
Win rate
84%
37 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 91- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
11000 shares @ 95.1¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$10.9K
$462.06
- NO
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?
3300 shares @ 94.3¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$3.1K
$5.12
- YES
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
130000 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$845.00
$-195.00
- YES
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
100000 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$750.00
$-52.00
- YES
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
600 shares @ 87.7¢·now 98.2¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$588.90
$62.90
- YES
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
2309 shares @ 26.5¢·now 24.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$554.21
$-56.67
- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
600 shares @ 91.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$549.00
$3.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
40000 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$380.00
$20.00
- YES
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
49999 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$374.99
$25.00
- YES
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election?
44999 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.7¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$292.49
$22.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Czechia be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup?$12.75Jun 13, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYITF Madrid: Carmen Gallardo Guevara vs Briyana Ivanova$5.63Jun 13, 08:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paraguay be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup?$1.06Jun 13, 08:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$0.15Jun 13, 08:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.00Jun 13, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Junnosuke Suzuki be in Japan's Starting 11?$18.78Jun 13, 08:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.04Jun 13, 08:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Junnosuke Suzuki be in Japan's Starting 11?$28.21Jun 13, 08:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.05Jun 13, 08:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.04Jun 13, 08:34 UTC
- REDEEMITF Decatur: Ana Grubor vs Olivia Lincer$0.00Jun 13, 08:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mark McKenzie be in the starting 11 for the USA's first 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage match?$0.00Jun 13, 08:31 UTC
- REDEEMBratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton$0.00Jun 13, 08:31 UTC
- REDEEMBratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva$0.00Jun 13, 08:31 UTC
- REDEEMITF Decatur: Kylie Collins vs Malaika Rapolu$0.00Jun 13, 08:31 UTC
- REDEEMIlkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris$0.00Jun 13, 08:31 UTC
- REDEEMHSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu$0.00Jun 13, 08:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alex Freeman be in the starting 11 for the USA's first 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage match?$0.00Jun 13, 08:31 UTC
- REDEEMLibema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic$0.00Jun 13, 08:31 UTC
- REDEEMITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Alena Kovackova$0.00Jun 13, 08:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $3.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 13, 05:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 08:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 37 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.