Well-Groomed-Wrapping
0x8f7856760e239d987edb7ae2e0dd583711351141
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
20
Open notional
$1.6K
Total PnL
$-395.61
Realised
$-12.16
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
800 shares @ 50.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$639.60
$239.60
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
800 shares @ 50.0¢·now 20.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$160.40
$-239.60
- NO
Will Nous Research launch a token by December 31, 2027?
194 shares @ 75.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$160.22
$14.57
- YES
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
135 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$134.76
$14.76
- YES
Relay FDV above $100M one day after launch?
269 shares @ 65.7¢·now 45.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$122.61
$-54.55
- NO
Will Nous Research launch a token by September 30, 2027?
197 shares @ 76.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Oct 1, 2027$109.24
$-40.37
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
100 shares @ 89.0¢·now 79.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$79.00
$-10.00
- YES
Dreamcash FDV above $50M one day after launch?
122 shares @ 73.6¢·now 48.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$58.47
$-31.18
- YES
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?
250 shares @ 70.3¢·now 20.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$51.37
$-124.50
- YES
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?
256 shares @ 47.1¢·now 14.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$37.10
$-83.34
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$6.76Jul 28, 22:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$2.84Jul 28, 22:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nous Research launch a token by December 31, 2027?$148.21Jul 28, 20:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nous Research launch a token by September 30, 2027?$52.10Jul 28, 20:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nous Research launch a token by December 31, 2027?$29.47Jul 28, 20:36 UTC
- MERGEWill Nous Research launch a token by December 31, 2027?$30.47Jul 28, 20:35 UTC
- MERGEWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$200.00Jul 28, 15:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?$2.85Jul 28, 11:34 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$120.00Jul 27, 15:46 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- MERGEWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$200.00Jul 26, 15:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$114.28Jul 26, 10:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$90.30Jul 26, 01:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nous Research launch a token by December 31, 2027?$3.09Jul 25, 18:17 UTC
- REDEEMIran full airspace closure by July 24?$60.00Jul 25, 06:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31, 2026?$15.00Jul 25, 03:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 25?$20.00Jul 25, 02:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31, 2026?$14.55Jul 25, 01:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $48.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 10:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 22:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.