Generous-Ginger
0x8fc04319073e4b4ed9945afbd3f35fe41ecdd2ce
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
170
Open notional
$4.6K
Total PnL
$-38.0K
Realised
$1.1K
Win rate
89%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 170- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
37500 shares @ 8.0¢·now 12.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$4.6K
$1.6K
- NO
Will there be a US Government shutdown?
160000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2024$0.00
$-320.00
- NO
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
63856 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-657.27
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET
32262 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.3K
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
25000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-75.00
- FLYING OYSTER
MSI Playoffs: T1 vs. Flying Oyster
20000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET
12777 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 12, 2026$0.00
$-199.98
- YES
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?
12105 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2025$0.00
$-539.69
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET
11868 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 12, 2026$0.00
$-399.76
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
10814 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 12, 2026$0.00
$-149.99
Recent activity
- TAKER_REBATE$5.26Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$4.9KJul 19, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$4.5KJul 19, 21:43 UTC
- TRADESELLSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$181.93Jul 19, 21:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$516.19Jul 19, 21:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$515.36Jul 19, 19:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Karmine Corp vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner$52.22Jul 19, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs$52.42Jul 19, 12:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs$104.17Jul 19, 12:28 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$4.98Jul 19, 00:45 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$6.97Jul 19, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France vs. England end in a draw?$61.37Jul 18, 22:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France vs. England end in a draw?$20.98Jul 18, 22:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill England win on 2026-07-18?$4.0KJul 18, 21:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill England win on 2026-07-18?$9.82Jul 18, 21:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill England win on 2026-07-18?$52.80Jul 18, 21:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill England win on 2026-07-18?$309.70Jul 18, 21:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill England win on 2026-07-18?$484.00Jul 18, 21:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill England win on 2026-07-18?$100.00Jul 18, 21:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill England win on 2026-07-18?$497.29Jul 18, 21:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$14.4K
Trades
2
Buy share
63%
Window
Jul 11, 23:40 UTC → Jul 12, 03:42 UTC
- SELLArgentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance$5.3K@100¢Jul 12, 03:42 UTC
- BUYNorway vs. England: Team to Advance$9.1K@93¢Jul 11, 23:34 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
15/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
89% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$14.4K
2 trades
Buy share
63%
Sample
low
2 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
$9.1K · 63% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $416.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 16, 21:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.