0x8fc4aaf4b0f8ff84b7d01b9e7556efac7b526b81
0x8fc4aaf4b0f8ff84b7d01b9e7556efac7b526b81
Wallet digest
Activity score
23/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
145
Open notional
$4.82
Total PnL
$-6.7K
Realised
$-3.3K
Win rate
1%
141 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 145- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 15?
5 shares @ 68.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$4.69
$1.50
- YES
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
150 shares @ 18.6¢·now 0.1¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.07
$-27.85
- YES
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
125 shares @ 29.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.06
$-36.86
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?
500 shares @ 6.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-33.99
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 23?
498 shares @ 16.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2026$0.00
$-83.61
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 19?
495 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-30.53
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on April 18?
449 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-38.26
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9?
400 shares @ 27.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-109.60
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15?
324 shares @ 75.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-244.94
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 18?
298 shares @ 15.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-45.17
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 20?$0.00Jun 21, 04:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 25?$0.00Jun 21, 04:30 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: DN SOOPers vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2$0.00Jun 21, 04:29 UTC
- REDEEMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?$0.00Jun 21, 04:29 UTC
- REDEEMGolden Knights vs. Kraken$0.00Jun 21, 04:29 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)$0.00Jun 21, 04:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 7?$0.00Jun 21, 04:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be above $90 on May 7?$0.00Jun 21, 04:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 10?$0.00Jun 21, 04:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be above $1.50 on April 17?$0.00Jun 21, 04:28 UTC
- REDEEMWild vs. Stars$0.00Jun 21, 04:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 17?$0.00Jun 21, 04:28 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down on May 17?$0.00Jun 21, 04:27 UTC
- REDEEMUpper Austria Ladies Linz: Sloane Stephens vs Tatjana Maria$0.00Jun 21, 04:27 UTC
- REDEEMNew York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants$0.00Jun 21, 04:27 UTC
- REDEEMHouston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies$0.00Jun 21, 04:27 UTC
- REDEEMUpper Austria Ladies Linz: Katie Boulter vs Gabriela Ruse$0.00Jun 21, 04:26 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$0.00Jun 21, 04:26 UTC
- REDEEMMeta (META) Up or Down on May 12?$0.00Jun 21, 04:26 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 12?$0.00Jun 21, 04:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 141 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
141 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 04:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 21, 04:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 141 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.