Wallet digest

Activity score

15/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

144

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-6.7K

Realised

$-3.3K

Win rate

140 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 144

YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?
500 shares @ 6.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026
$0.00
$-33.99
YES
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 23?
498 shares @ 16.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2026
$0.00
$-83.61
NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 19?
495 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026
$0.00
$-30.53
YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on April 18?
449 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026
$0.00
$-38.26
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9?
400 shares @ 27.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026
$0.00
$-109.60
YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15?
324 shares @ 75.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026
$0.00
$-244.94
YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 18?
298 shares @ 15.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026
$0.00
$-45.17
YES
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 15?
276 shares @ 25.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026
$0.00
$-69.88
YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 19?
236 shares @ 31.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026
$0.00
$-74.82
NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 12?
195 shares @ 26.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026
$0.00
$-52.43

Recent activity

REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 15?$4.69Jul 5, 20:50 UTC
REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 20?$0.00Jun 30, 06:50 UTC
REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 25?$0.00Jun 30, 06:50 UTC
REDEEMLoL: DN SOOPers vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2$0.00Jun 30, 06:50 UTC
REDEEMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?$0.00Jun 30, 06:50 UTC
REDEEMGolden Knights vs. Kraken$0.00Jun 30, 06:50 UTC
REDEEMSpread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)$0.00Jun 30, 06:49 UTC
REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 7?$0.00Jun 30, 06:49 UTC
REDEEMWill the price of Solana be above $90 on May 7?$0.00Jun 30, 06:49 UTC
REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 10?$0.00Jun 30, 06:49 UTC
REDEEMWill the price of XRP be above $1.50 on April 17?$0.00Jun 30, 06:49 UTC
REDEEMWild vs. Stars$0.00Jun 30, 06:48 UTC
REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 17?$0.00Jun 30, 06:48 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down on May 17?$0.00Jun 30, 06:48 UTC
REDEEMUpper Austria Ladies Linz: Sloane Stephens vs Tatjana Maria$0.00Jun 30, 06:48 UTC
REDEEMNew York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants$0.00Jun 30, 06:48 UTC
REDEEMHouston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies$0.00Jun 30, 06:47 UTC
REDEEMUpper Austria Ladies Linz: Katie Boulter vs Gabriela Ruse$0.00Jun 30, 06:47 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$0.00Jun 30, 06:47 UTC
REDEEMMeta (META) Up or Down on May 12?$0.00Jun 30, 06:47 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

63/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 140 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

missing

No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.

Resolved-only track record

pass

140 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity0 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry55 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk20 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 0
Avg trade size: $0.00
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 30, 06:40 UTC
Last active: Jul 5, 20:50 UTC
Win rate sample: 140 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 06:41:47 UTC·src:Polymarket Data